The Israeli Air Force, including air defense and intelligence services, remains on high alert. In parallel, there is cooperation with the US and other countries. Dozens of US fighter jets and B-52 strategic bombers have already arrived in the region and joined the large US force that is here both to deter Iran and to help intercept a possible Iranian drone and missile attack.
Iran said yesterday that if a cease-fire is declared in Lebanon, it will affect its response. As I've written to you before, Iran is very interested in a ceasefire right now because it will save Hizbullah from collapse. Therefore, Iran is actually proposing a favorable scenario for itself: let Israel agree to a ceasefire, and Iran will then reduce (or perhaps cancel altogether) its retaliatory strike. This will fully satisfy Iran's strategic interest to preserve Hizbullah, and at the same time it will avoid aggravating the conflict with Israel and the U.S. and reduce the risk of destroying its oil and nuclear facilities.
That is why Israel should never accept such a scenario — i.e., an immediate truce in Lebanon!
Rather, we should continue our attacks, undermining Hizbullah's positions and, by destroying its missile sites throughout Lebanon, its headquarters, weapons factories, ammunition, missile and drone depots, and all underground infrastructure in southern Lebanon — at least as far as the Litani River. Only then can a peace agreement with Lebanon be considered.
Iran's goal is to respond without provoking Israel into a harsh response that would destroy oil or nuclear facilities. Therefore, much of the response is likely to come from within Iraq by Iran's subordinate Iraqi militias.
Israel for its part has directly threatened Iraq in recent days: if we are attacked from your territory, we will destroy targets from you as well.
What are the capabilities of the Iraqi militias? These groups have mostly drone and cruise missile capabilities, and probably a limited ballistic missile capability.
It should be noted that Israel's air defense system has demonstrated great effectiveness over the past year in repelling threats from Iraq, intercepting more than 95 percent of all targets launched from there, both drones and missiles.
It must be remembered that the longer the range of a drone launched from as far away as Yemen, Iran, or Iraq, the larger (to increase fuel supply) and more massive it is, and thus easier to detect and intercept.
Iran's retaliatory attack will probably also include launches from Yemen, Lebanon and Syria.
However, Syrian President Assad strongly fears an Israeli retaliatory strike that would destroy the remains of the Syrian army and lead to the collapse of his regime. It can therefore be assumed that launches from Syrian territory, if any, will be limited in number, range and power.
Many are asking: how can Iran even want to attack us? After all, we destroyed its S-300 air defense systems! Aren't they intimidated by Israel's might? Obviously Iran would suffer serious casualties if it attacked us now, right?
The answer to this requires several levels of explanation:
1. At the most basic level, Iran has seen itself as an empire for years. This is very clear to Iranian leaders and is also clearly reflected in their speeches, Iran's official publications, and in the way Iran positions itself — as an extension of the “Persian Empire”, with regional and even world ambitions.
Therefore, the assumption in Israel is that Iran will not remain silent after a blow that undermined its status as a regional power and was a serious humiliation for it.
2. Not all of Iran's calculations are rational, logical and pragmatic. Judged from a “Western” and logical point of view, it would have been more advantageous for Iran not to respond to the attack, to simply accept it and “sit tight” so as not to suffer further significant and heavy losses, especially since it now has no strategic air defense system and its borders are vulnerable.
However, much of Iran's calculations are not “Western” or “rational.” They are motivated by religious fanaticism rooted in an extremist Shiite jihadist doctrine that is willing to tolerate brutal strikes just so long as, G-d forbid, they harm Israel.
3. From Iran's perspective — and this is evident in many speeches by its military and political leaders over the years - its ability to bear blows and losses is high. Iran is willing to tolerate heavy losses in order to move forward, especially in confronting those it considers “small adversaries” like Israel, which it perceives as a small state with a limited ability to withstand blows. Therefore, from Iran's perspective, it can well afford to “exchange blows” with Israel.
What does all this mean for us?
It means that Iran wants to respond despite the fact that it has suffered a severe blow to its air defenses from Israel.
It is important to emphasize this - this does not mean that Iran is willing to “commit suicide.” There is a big difference between “suffering a blow” and “committing a suicidal act”.
Therefore, in my opinion, even though Iran does see itself as a great power and has extremely radical religious motivations, its leadership has avoided radical steps towards the US and Israel all these years. For example, in its attacks on Israel, Iran has avoided direct attacks on civilian targets for fear of a harsh response from Israel.
Thus, Iran does want to respond, but seeks to do so in a way that does not provoke Israel or perhaps the US to retaliate too strongly.
Still, all of the above is “within the realm of the natural.”
But Israel's existence, from our perspective, is inherently “supernatural”! As it says in the tractate of our sages, “A sheep among 70 wolves — how is it protected?”
And the sages answer, “A great shepherd — the sheep has a shepherd, great and strong, who protects it from all the wolves.”
The people of Israel are under special Divine protection. This is true everywhere in the world, and especially — as the Rebbe King Moshiach emphasizes - it is true in the Land of Israel, in the Holy Land.
To summarize:
Iran seeks to respond and will probably try to do so from Iraqi territory in order to reduce its direct responsibility and avoid a serious conflict with Israel and the US.
At the same time, we are convinced that the Land of Israel is the safest place in the world, and our full confidence in G-d is that all the designs of our enemies will be completely destroyed. We will see miracles and signs, and “fear and horror will fall upon them.” And, G-d willing, let's hope that this fear will prevent them from any response!
A few important additional points:
The severe blow Iran received, while it has not deprived it of its desire to respond, has restrained it in certain directions:
Iran is likely to refrain from attacking power plants and other critical Israeli infrastructure (desalination plants, power and electrical structures, etc.), realizing that Iran is now completely open, having lost its strategic air defense. Which gives Israel the opportunity to destroy Iran's oil facilities and cause Iran's economic collapse.
Iran is also likely to avoid strikes on nuclear facilities in Israel (Dimona nuclear reactor, Nahal Sorek reactor, etc.) as it is now vulnerable to attack on its own nuclear facilities left without effective defenses.
Iran is also unlikely to target populated centers and will focus on military targets and symbols of power (although this is less comforting to the public, since our military facilities are near major cities and missile intercept routes pass over many cities. Therefore, it is imperative that everyone follow the instructions of the home front and take the necessary precautions).
The scope of Iran's response is expected to be limited, and it is unlikely that it will fire “a thousand missiles,” as the commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps have threatened. It is more likely that it will launch a few hundred missiles and UAVs, and with that the Israeli air defense system, God willing, will be able to handle with high efficiency.
Iran also seeks to end this round of exchanges without escalating to a full-scale and prolonged conflict because it understands that it is in a vulnerable position and would be better off “gaining time” and trying to close serious gaps in its own defense system.
The presence of large U.S. forces in the region and their recent reinforcement also strengthens Iran's deterrence and limits its retaliation.
The most important thing from our point of view is our absolute confidence in G-d, who will destroy the plans of our enemies, for “many are the plans of man's heart, but only the plans of G-d will come true”!