Yesterday Putin announced the suspension of Russia's participation in the Nuclear Disarmament Treaty. From one point of view, this is certainly a tragic announcement. However, at the same time, it fits well with Russian propaganda campaign against the pro-Ukrainian Western countries undertaken by Putin over the last few months. This is no coincidence that Putin made this statement in the middle of a long speech, much of which dealt with the war in Ukraine and the support of the Western world for that country.
I believe there are several points to note:
1. Putin has personally signed disarmament treaties more than once in the past.
2. During all these years he implemented very carefully the systematic and organized nuclear weapons disarmament, so Russia has implemented all of the tasks set out in these treaties.
3. During the last years and even now during the war, nuclear disarmament was still going on.
4. Russia has no economic opportunities to compete with the West in a new nuclear arms race, as it did in the Cold War. Therefore it is quite obvious to me that we will not see a new arms race. In any case, a significant increase in the stockpile of nuclear weapons seems to me absolutely improbable.
5. As part of Russia’s propaganda campaign, in an effort to strengthen a containment factor against the West, Putin may announce some nuclear initiatives and the development of new weapons. However, since Russia does not have the financial capacity to actually undertake such an arms race, all these statements will in reality remain nothing more than propaganda.
In conclusion, despite his statement, Putin is absolutely not interested in a nuclear arms race in which Russia would suffer huge economic losses. Therefore, his statement will most likely have no practical effect and is not expected to result in any significant increase of Russia’s nuclear arsenal.
Moreover, according to my assessment, due to the increasing deterioration of most missiles and bombs, this arsenal will continue to shrink, whether Putin wants it or not...